The coming storm
With this week's completion of a United Nations resolution giving Iraq a "final opportunity" to surrender its weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein faces a stark choice: Disarm or die. In truth, they both amount to the same thing. Saddam is finished, and many Iraqis seem to understand that this story is now moving into its endgame.
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The idea is to portray Iraqis as victims rather than henchmen. That's why the list of Iraqis likely to be charged in advance with war crimes will probably be relatively short - to leave the door open for everyone else to cooperate.
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Some analysts are claiming that this process of defection is well under way. I don't believe it. The Iraqi military still needs to be convinced that the United States and its allies are serious - that they are coming, with weapons that are devastating beyond anything seen in the 1991 Gulf War. "They'll need to smell the exhaust of an Abrams tank before they switch sides," one analyst cautions.
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The reason these Iraqis are wary is that they remember the past 10 years, when America talked about liberating Iraq but did nothing - and thousands of Iraqis who trusted the United States were slaughtered. No sensible Iraqi military officer will want to risk himself or his family this time unless he is sure.
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Keep your eye on Saddam Hussein as he is pushed inexorably toward the corner. I suspect that once the UN inspection regime is in place, he's a loser - either way he moves. The danger is, how many Americans, Israelis and Arabs will he take down with him? The Iraqi leader has an endgame strategy, too. We just don't know what it is.
David Ignatius IHT
informant38
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...But of these sophisms and elenchs of merchandise I skill not...
Milton, Areopagitica
Except he had found the
standing sea-rock that even this last
Temptation breaks on; quieter than death but lovelier; peace
that quiets the desire even of praising it.
Jeffers, Meditation On Saviors
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8.11.02
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