Unlike Oslo, violence is likely to erupt much sooner in the case of the roadmap. It will hardly take seven years before the already sceptical Palestinians realise that their fate is worsening, and before Abbas finds himself out of the spotlight, neither able to satisfy Israel's demands, nor able to tell the Palestinians: I told you, abandoning armed struggle will pay off.
The only variable that can be effective in avoiding a total disaster is a more balanced US role that exerts equal pressure on both Israelis and Palestinians. While Bush's government seems resolved on what it expects from Abbas' government, its stance with Sharon and his government is marred by hesitancy, indecisiveness, and often �unconditional support.�
Chances are that history's vicious cycle will continue to spin, churning the Middle East into violence and chaos once more. This time there won't be years of calm before the storm once again reaches the shores of the Mediterranean, and this time the cost is likely to be higher.
Ramzy Baroud Jordan Times August 11 2003
