The collapse of the state would have global political, economic and security ramifications.
Growing sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians, a conflict that shows all the signs of erupting into an all-out religious war, is ravaging Nigeria.
Western intelligence services believe that Islamic extremists are making a determined effort to penetrate West Africa, an emerging world-class oil giant, amid signs that Osama bin Laden has singled out Nigeria for jihad.
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the continent's leading oil producer. It has the largest Muslim population in Africa after Egypt. In recent years, there has been mounting Islamic militancy and growing anti-Western hostility in Nigeria that makes it fertile ground for extremist recruiters. The unrest is apparently being stoked by radical Arab Islamic preachers and agents of Al-Qaeda.
The USA is already deploying small groups of special forces throughout the impoverished Sahel region states of Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger to counter infiltration by Islamic militants moving south from Algeria. With West Africa in danger of becoming the new battleground between the USA and Al-Qaeda, heavier oil-driven US intervention may become unavoidable - a path fraught with pitfalls and one that could have a dramatic impact on US policy in Africa.
Ed Blanche /Jane's Information Group Jun.29.04
