Informant38

North Korea becomes China's bete noire
In a worst-case scenario, full-scale war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula. China could and probably would stay out of it. But the collateral damage to Chinese interests would be massive. The United States, South Korea, and a peripherally involved Japan lending logistic support would win such a war, at the expense of possibly hundreds of thousands of casualties. Regime change in Pyongyang and Korean unification, unplanned and under chaotic circumstances, would be inevitable - to the long-term detriment of China's regional strategic and global economic interests. South Korean foreign investment, the bulk of which now flows to China, would be diverted to Korean reconstruction, as would substantial portions of other foreign investment now flowing to China. Instead of having two Korean quasi-allies, China would face a unified nation of uncertain allegiance. Japan almost inevitably would emerge as a major new regional military power. Unification of mainland China with Taiwan would likely be postponed for generations in the context of the newly emerging strategic constellation. The United States, now in the process of long-term thinning out of its military strategic presence in East Asia, would be re-ensconced there.
�Marc Erikson Asia Times Sep 12 2003