Informant38

he was loath to declassify any classified document:

The Bush administration released late this afternoon declassified parts of a major intelligence report stating that intelligence agencies found the Iraq war had become a "cause celebre" for Islamic militants, and that Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups present a serious and continuing threat to the United States.

"The Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," excerpts from the report said.

Knowlton/NYTimes 26.09.06
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United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of alQa'ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that alQa'ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement - which includes alQa'ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells - is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit.
• Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on alQa'ida, could erode support for the jihadists.

Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate
"Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States"
dated April 2006 [pdf]